The Emmy Awards air Sunday night at 8pm on CBS and Paramount+. Good luck, Nate.
The Emmys traditionally celebrate television excellence with one of the most boring shows to watch. Putting it up against the #1 show (Sunday Night Football) illustrates what the industry thinks of The Emmys.
The key to watching (dare I say enjoying) this program is analyzing how it really works. There are those who SHOULD win, and those who WILL win. Rarely are these two the same.
Keep in mind that the following shows have won as many Emmys as I have: Better Call Saul. The Wire. Oz. Parks and Recreation. BoJack Horseman. Chappelle's Show. Good Times. The Bob Newhart Show. Yup - zero.
So if you choose to watch this year's telecast, don't be upset when your favorite show fails to leave with the big statuette that Saturday Night Live somehow keeps bringing home.
That doesn't stop the gambler in me from trying to figure out who the winners will be. So here goes...
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Deserves to win: Andor
Will win: The Pitt
Severance is a close second, but The Pitt has the appeal and the goods to take home the Emmy this year. Don't sleep on Andor - you don't have to be a Star Wars geek to appreciate how good of a show it is.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Deserves to win: Shrinking
Will win: The Studio
The Bear isn't a comedy and will be punished by voters. Shrinking came into its own this season and the Academy has a love affair with Hacks (congrats to Julianne Nicholson for her well deserved Guest Actress Emmy). But here's an industry self-congratulatory caveat - a win for The Studio proves voters are in on the joke - or at least they think that they are. Irresistible.
BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Deserves to win: Adolescence
Will win: Adolescence
Apologies to The Penguin, but the first episode of Adolescence was a highlight of the year that shouldn't be missed. Powerful storytelling in 4 eps with one steady camera shot.
BEST TALK SERIES
Deserves to win: The Daily Show
Will win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
TDS may pull off the victory, but Jon Stewart will probably throw to Colbert anyway. This is one acceptance speech worth paying attention to.
BEST SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES
Deserves to win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Will win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Even going head to head with Saturday Night Live cannot stop John Oliver at the Emmys. Yet another acceptance speech I look forward to hearing.
BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
Deserves to win: Adam Scott, Severance
Will win: Noah Wyle, The Pitt
I hope I'm wrong here. Adam Scott gave a fantastic performance this season, and a win would provide even more The Studio irony. But I don't think Hollywood can resist Dr. Carter, sorry, Dr. Robby who was excellent as well. All five nominees are top notch.
BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
Deserves to win: Brett Lower, Severance
Will win: Kathy Bates, Matlock
Echoing my previous Severance sentiment, Brett Lower was must-see TV this season. The Academy won't be able to resist Kathy Bates doing her thing yet again.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: DRAMA
Deserves to win: Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Will win: Tramell Trillman, Severance
In this battle of only White Lotus and Severance actors (which is B.S.), Sam Rockwell stole the season showing up in Thailand. Tramell will bring one home for Lumon.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: DRAMA
Deserves to win: Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Will win: Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Four actresses from White Lotus? Really? Patricia Arquette could surprise here, but Parker Posey's drawl will carry the night. Katherine LaNasa had the hardest role to play in this bunch and is the heart and soul of The Pitt.
BEST ACTOR: COMEDY
Deserves to win: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will win: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
The Bear is not a comedy, and I'm worried about my picks because the Academy might globally punish the show. Jeremy Allen White is Best Actor regardless of category.
BEST ACTRESS: COMEDY
Deserves to win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Will win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
The Bear still isn't a comedy. Ayo is excellent, but Jean Smart deserves a lifetime achievement for what she does on Hacks.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: COMEDY
Deserves to win: Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere/Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
The Bear is...well, you know. I've got Harrison Ford finishing fourth which is saying something. Jeff Hiller deserves more than a nomination. If Ike wins, it will be the most surreal acceptance speech ever made. Thank you, Sal Saperstein!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: COMEDY
Deserves to win: Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Will win: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
A Hannah win will be a make-good Emmy for Jean Smart's loss. Kathryn Hahn will remind studio marketing execs way too much of themselves to vote for her.
BEST ACTOR: LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Deserves to win: Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Will win: Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham is excellent in Adolescence and Cooper Koch makes one hell of a Menendez, but this will be Colin's year.
BEST ACTRESS: LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Deserves to win: Cristin Miloti, The Penguin
Will win: Michelle Williams, Dying For Sex
Cate Blanchett gets beat by another award-winning actress. Cristin Miloti gets robbed as she and her character deserve a better fate.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Deserves to win: Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Will win: Owen Cooper, Adolescence
A first-time appearance by a kid in a supporting actor category? Easy win, even over the great Javier.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES
Deserves to win: Jenny Slate, Dying For Sex
Will win: Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Do you really think both Javier or Chloe aren't going home with a statuette? Jenny remains underrated, but her hands will be undeservedly empty tonight.
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I'll be watching the Falcons and the Vikings. Let me know how this goes.